Former Bill Clinton Adviser Thinks Hillary Will Not Be the Democratic Nominee
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Hillary Clinton (via Gage Skidmore / Flickr)
Could there be a real chance that Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee for president?
Douglas Schoen, who has worked on Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign and reportedly supported Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, thinks so. In an opinion piece published Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal, he argues that there are several reasons Clinton could fail. For one, he starts, her campaign could be “eviscerated” if she loses to Bernie Sanders in California’s Democratic primary on June 7:
A recent PPIC poll shows Mrs. Clinton with a 2% lead over Mr. Sanders, and a Fox News survey found the same result. Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or more—a significant boost. California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to under perform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters. …
A Sanders win in California would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clinton’s weakness as a candidate in the general election. Democratic super delegates—chosen by the party establishment and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44—would seriously question whether they should continue to stand behind her candidacy.
He then goes on to say that at the Democratic National Convention, Sanders will most likely introduce a rule change “requiring super delegates to vote for the candidate who won their state’s primary or caucus.” This too, he argues, would hurt Clinton’s chances.
He also covers the new polling numbers that show Sanders as a stronger competitor against Trump than Clinton, and he brings up the mounting legal issues Clinton faces. He ends by pondering potential new nominations. “John Kerry, the 2004 nominee, is one possibility. But the most likely scenario is that Vice President Joe Biden—who has said that he regrets ‘every day’ his decision not to run—enters the race.”
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