Election Day looks good for the Democrats — with one crucial exception
It’s all coming up aces for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by more than seven percentage points nationally in the poll averages. She is ahead by seven points in New Hampshire, eight in Virginia, nine in Pennsylvania and 11 in Colorado — enough to lock up the electoral college. Polls also look good for the Democrats to retake the Senate, especially because former Indiana senator Evan Bayh decided to run for his old seat.
But not all the news is good. Despite the Democrats having the inside track for the executive branch and the upper chamber of Congress, there seems little chance of a Democratic House.
Why? The easy answer is that the Democratic Party — and especially the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — has failed to take advantage of its opportunity. With the White House nearly clinched and the Senate ripe for retaking, the argument goes, surely the only reason a House takeover appears remote is institutional failure. While the DCCC would like to make between 45 and 60 seats competitive, outside prognosticators put the number in the mid-30s.
There is no doubt that the DCCC and the party could have done a better job preparing for a Trump-led ticket. Though Trump’s nomination helped the DCCC recruit, in many cases his victory came too late: By the time Trump essentially clinched the nomination in March, three-quarters of the filing deadlines had passed.
Frankly, though, staffers at places like the DCCC are paid to anticipate things like a Trump victory. “There are a dozen districts where Democrats should have been able to compete with Trump at the top of the ticket,” says David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.